CEEMEA EQUITY RESEARCH

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA EQUITY RESEARCH

CEEMEA Equity Research

CEEMEA First to Market 30 July 2026

Top Stories | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Top Stories

AFL | Jeronimo Martins (Borja Olcese) (JMT PL, OW)

Margin outperformance drives valuation & earnings upside risk

Margin outperformance drives valuation & earnings upside risk. JMT delivered Biedronka 2Q LFL contraction of -1.6%, in

line with expectations, while margins surprised to the upside: Biedronka margin increased over 40bps y/y (vs cons.

assumptions of flat), and group margins rose 20bps y/y (vs cons. modelling a 10bps decline). The beat was supported by a

50bps improvement in gross margin, favourable mix, and continued cost control. Further, net income was flat y/y, beating the

Street by 8%. Mgmt. caveated its own inflation outlook by pointing out Biedronka might stay deflationary for longer – this should

no longer become a hurdle to step into the investment case, provided the sound margin delivery as MSD% volume growth

underpinned earnings to a greater extent than investors were assuming and pricing in. In the context of shares down 14% YTD,

we think this update will drive some re-rating off a rather low base, on top of MSD% earnings upgrades – 1H implies relatively

undemanding consensus expectations for 2H, particularly given generally easier LFL comparatives coupled with headroom for

further margin expansion. We reiterate our Overweight rating with a Dec-27 €23 price target (c32% upside potential).

Dino (Elena Jouronova, CFA) (DNP PW, UW)

Mixed read-across from JMT’s 2Q26 print

Jeronimo Martins’ Biedronka (OW, AFL, covered by Borja Olcese) reported -1.6% LFL in 2Q26, marking a 390bp q/q slowdown

which came broadly in line with the downgraded Consensus expectations.