Carlisle: 2Q Results: CWT Inflection Point Marks New Phase for Carlisle, PT to $450

Research evidence excerpt

Carlisle: 2Q Results: CWT Inflection Point Marks New Phase for Carlisle, PT to $450

couple of points of price Q3 5.62 5.76

across 2H. The revised outlook lowers FY26 adj. EBITDA margin from Q4 3.90 4.70

FY 19.40 21.13 24.74

+50bps to flat YoY, reflecting the delay between pricing and cost pressure.

• Establishing Dec-27 PT of $450: Estimates Raised: Following a strong Style Exposure

quarter that paired a robust revenue outlook with a partially offsetting margin

guidance cut, we adjust our FY26 estimates, raising revenue while lowering

our margin profile on price-cost dynamics, and raising our FY27 estimates. We

believe innovation, COS implementation, and upfront pricing actions are

driving material improvement, and we are therefore raising our numbers and

our price target to $450 (from $420), based on 13.5x our FY27 adjusted

EBITDA, reflecting our confidence in Carlisle’s long-term earnings growth.

• CWT Inflects on Growth in Down Market: The demand backdrop remained

challenged in 2Q26, yet Carlisle generated above-market growth, with

reroofing demand growing ~3% while commercial new construction declined

MSD. CWT delivered the standout, with revenue up 10% (~8% organic)

against end markets down 3% to 4%, and contributing the first positive organic

growth since 2022. In CCM, management highlighted premium TPO

capturing data center specifications as PVC supply tightened, an emerging

tailwind that sits squarely in Carlisle’s product sweet spot.

• Capital Discipline Front and Center as Carlisle Stays the Course: Carlisle

continues to lean on capital discipline and superior returns as differentiators,

with management declining to comment on recent rumors regarding a potential

Owens Corning acquisition. On distribution, management characterized the