JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

29 July 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsAssessing the channels through which

Global FX Strategyearthquakes affect the JPY

Yujiro Goto - NSC

FX impact likely to depend on travel and trade balance deterioration, with yujiro.goto@nomura.com

risks skewed toward weaker yen supply-demand conditions +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• The FX impact of the latest earthquake is likely to operate through two channels: (1) yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

FX supply-demand dynamics, and (2) implications for the BOJ’s policy reaction +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

function.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

• Large-scale insurer repatriation to fund claims payments appears unlikely, given the tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

likely scale of the event relative to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and +81 3 6703 1427

insurers’ securities holdings. However, services flows and exports bear watching, as Yuki Kodera - NSC

weaker inbound tourism or semiconductor-related supply-chain disruption could weigh yuki.kodera@nomura.com

on yen demand. +81 3 6703 1281

• BOJ policy implications look limited for now. Although OIS markets have priced a

modest decline in rate-hike expectations, the earthquake does not yet appear likely to

alter the BOJ’s policy reaction function materially. The BOJ is likely to maintain its

message of gradually raising rates in line with economic activity, prices and financial

conditions.

Fig. 1: Japanese insurance companies’ securities holdings and Fig. 2: Market pricing for the BOJ policy rate

insurance payouts in 2011

Source: Nomura, Bloomberg

Note: 1) Securities holdings are as of the end of March 2026. 2) Insurance claims paid in