Resona Holdings: We revise our forecasts, keep our Neutral rating

Research evidence excerpt

Resona Holdings: We revise our forecasts, keep our Neutral rating

Global Markets Research

29 July 2026Resona Holdings

8308.T 8308 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN BANKS

RatingWe revise our forecasts, keep our Neutral rating Remains Neutral

Target price

Increased from 1,650 JPY 2,350High interest rate sensitivity, but stock lacks relative valuation appeal

Closing price JPY 2,265.0We keep our Neutral rating 28 July 2026

We revise our forecasts for Resona Holdings in light of 26/3 results, subsequent research,

Implied upside +3.8%and the current market environment. We raise our longer-term earnings forecasts, mainly

to reflect higher interest rates. We raise our target price from ¥1,650 to ¥2,350 and

maintain our Neutral rating. While Resona Holdings' high sensitivity to yen interest rates is

likely to attract attention, we think expectations for a boost from rising interest rates in the

Relative performance chartnear term have already been priced, as the stock is trading at a P/B of around 1.7x (based

on end-26/3 BPS), in line with that for the megabanks. The average remaining maturity of

its JGB holdings is long at 6.8 years (before hedging, as of end-March 2026), and as it

holds many held-to-maturity bonds, we think it will take longer than rivals to realize rate

sensitivity through portfolio repositioning. Unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities

were relatively high at ¥636.2bn at end-March 2026. Taking these factors into account, we

think the company's risk–reward profile is more or less balanced, and think the shares are

trading around fair value.

Earnings outlook

Our 27/3 forecast for profits attributable to owners of the parent is higher than guidance of

¥310.0bn. Considering market assumptions (including for forex and share prices) and the