Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

29 July 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Differences with summer 2024 market turmoil Research Analysts Strategy

Focus more on US being behind the curve and movement in bank stocks Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

than on Japan naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-TheJapanesemarketresemblestheperiodbeforethemarket'ssharpvolatilityin

summer2024inmanyways,includingtheincreaseinspeculativeJPYshortsandthe

responsefromauthorities.

-USmarketsmorecloselyresemble2017and2023than2024,asthesewereperiods

whentheFedbeganraisingratesandtechstocksunderperformed.

-In2017,equitiesrose,bondswereflat,andUSDweakened.In2023,equitiesfell,bonds

fell,andUSDweakened.Thecurrentphasemaybecloserto2017.

-Unlikein2023,USbankstocksareontherise,withnosuggestionofacreditcrunchor

economicdownturnatthepresenttime.

Today's Japanese markets

In Japanese markets on Wednesday, this author expects bonds to be solid and equities to

remain unstable (in overnight futures trading, bonds and equities were up 9 sen and

JPY20, respectively, over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday, as on the previous two

days, the continuation of the ceasefire in the Middle East and lower crude oil prices

encouraged risk-on sentiment. However, continued weakness in US and European tech

stocks dampened market risk appetite. Credit markets were generally stable, but spreads

on US tech names continued to widen, with some reaching new highs for this period. In

the US stock market, investors sought refuge in defensive and consumer spending-related

stocks. In the tech sector, semiconductors continued to fall while MAG7 and software

stocks rose, indicating that rotation within the tech sector also continued. Ahead of the