C.H. Robinson: Nuclear Fallout Triggers Legal Limbo

Research evidence excerpt

C.H. Robinson: Nuclear Fallout Triggers Legal Limbo

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

C.H. Robinson Overweight

CHRW, CHRW US

Nuclear Fallout Triggers Legal Limbo Price (29 Jul 26):$173.75

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$225.00

Prior (Dec-26):$198.00

We expect CHRW will trade in line with the group after NAST was roughly in-line

after taking the full brunt of the truckload rate squeeze, while Global Forwarding Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingdrove the beat relative to the Street. The company’s Lean AI model delivered

another proof point as both segments hit their mid-cycle operating margin targets Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

despite weak demand and a sharp increase in purchased transportation costs. We (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

are constructive on management’s focus on profitable growth and durable share

gains in NAST while the next wave of AI-enabled efficiency gains has emerged Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

with Global Forwarding’s +15% YoY productivity in 2Q26. Management strongly grady.carr@jpmchase.com

disagreed with the recent nuclear verdict and intends to appeal, framing it as an

Brandon Wexler

industry issue rather than a Robinson-specific one, though we continue to expect (1-212) 622-1956

the ruling to weigh on the stock as negligent hiring liability gets defined on a state- brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

by-state and a county-by-county basis (details here). One small encouraging sign J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

in the quarter was that Robinson did not have a liability claim true-up post-

Montgomery, which implies that Robinson did not recognize significant exposure

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)on existing cases in states where the exemption previously applied. Overall, we