US Treasury Market Daily: Talk is cheap

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily: Talk is cheap

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

29 July 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

Talk is cheap

• Long-end yields rose 12bp and the curve 15bp end to end as the Fed held rates Fixed Income Strategy

AC unchanged, in a steepening move accelerated during the Q&A as Warsh Jay Barry

commented on the effectiveness of the Fed’s tools in fighting inflation, and (1-212) 834-4951

paid only lip service to the Fed’s 2% PCE mandate, downplaying his john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

commitment to 2% PCE inflation Jason Hunter AC

• Today’s moves were highly unusual, and it’s been rare to see an instance of (1-212)jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com270-0034

twist steepening in the wake of an FOMC meeting as was observed today, only

Harry Downie

occurring in about ~20% of instances over the past decade... (1-212) 270-9500

• ...We now expect the Fed to hike in December (versus 3Q27 previously). Given harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

Warsh’s comments suggesting the balance sheet could be more in play Amanda Berke

alongside a reduced commitment to the 2% inflation target, the risk points to (1-212) 834-5739

further bearish steepening. Thus we recommend stopping out of 5s/30s amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

flatteners at a loss

• Initiate 5Yx5Y zero-coupon inflation swap wideners: Warsh’s comments on

inflation expectations and broader inflation metrics increase the likelihood of

a repricing in forward inflation rates. 5Yx5Y swaps remain about 13bp cheap

to fair value, and trade near the bottom of their three-year range

• The 5s/30s curve steepens back into the 82bp resistance area and stops us out

of our steepening trade after we had lowered the stop level to our 77bp entry.

An upside break through the 80-83bp near-term range high would first seek the