South African Banks: Jun-26 Results Preview: Resilient fundamentals, CIB carrying the cycle. Placing FSR on +ve catalyst watch.

Research evidence excerpt

South African Banks: Jun-26 Results Preview: Resilient fundamentals, CIB carrying the cycle. Placing FSR on +ve catalyst watch.

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

30 July 2026

South African Banks

Jun-26 Results Preview: Resilient fundamentals, CIB

carrying the cycle. Placing FSR on +ve catalyst watch.

South African banks head into the August/September reporting season with sector CEEMEA Financials

ACfundamentals still healthy in our view. The recent June pre-close trading updates Baron Nkomo

among the big-4 banks were broadly steady-to-positive (3/4 banks maintained (27-11) 507-0385

FY26 guidance), and our latest monthly credit tracker shows loan growth running baron.nkomo@jpmorgan.com

close to double-digits YoY, led by corporate lending while retail remains softer J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

(mid-single digits). The renewed focus on inflation risks and potential policy rate Pooja Ruia

tightening reinforces that investor attention will be on NIM sensitivity, deposit (91-22) 6157-3688

pooja.ruia@jpmchase.com

competition and forward-looking impairment signals into 2H26. In our view, even J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

if parts of SA retail banking soften as a result of macro pressures, the Big 4 banks’

Mehmet Sevim

diversified earnings mix—particularly their CIB franchises (see our recent note: (971) 4428-1784

CIB deep dive confirms SA banks’ resilience and scale led winners)—should mehmet.sevim@jpmorgan.com

continue to provide an important through-the-cycle buffer. We expect banks to lean J.P. Morgan Securities plc

on (1) corporate/CIB-led revenue resilience (especially in global markets), (2)

disciplined cost execution, and (3) contained credit outcomes to protect returns. At