Infineon Technologies: FY3Q26 Preview: Focus will be on FY27 potential, capacity ramp and margin

Research evidence excerpt

Infineon Technologies: FY3Q26 Preview: Focus will be on FY27 potential, capacity ramp and margin

start of a very broad cycle; NXP Semiconductor reported

Automotive revenue up 17% YoY (adj for MEMS divestiture) driven by SDV,

electrification and connectivity and stressed growth was content-driven, not

restocking. SDV was the fastest growing part of the business at NXP. Infineon

is a significant player in this market with its MCU, sensors and ethernet

business.

• Price increases and higher CPU demand should provide upside to the

numbers. Press reports and the company itself indicate that Infineon raised

prices and will continue to do so where market conditions allow, which should

support margins. We would thus expect price increases to positively impact

revenue and margins in 4Q26. Additionally, Intel and AMD have indicated

very strong demand for agentic AI CPUs. Infineon is the leading power semi

supplier to data center CPUs (where it has a higher share than for GPUs). These

two trends mean that Infineon should be in a position to raise both 4Q26

revenue and margin guidance (implied through FY26 previously guided). The

company’s new capacity only ramps up starting 1Q27 so whether they can raise

guidance due to volume depends on supply availability. Vara consensus for

4Q26 is for revenue of €4,610m or sequential growth of 11.7% QoQ, which is

above 6Y seasonality of 8.5% QoQ. For FY26, the consensus expects revenue

to grow 10.5% YoY implying revenue of €16,202m which we interpret to be

in line with company guidance (~€16.1-16.2bn is our interpretation). Thus, our

view is that there is potential for Infineon to raise its sales and margin guidance

due to price increases.

• What to expect for 3Q26? Infineon is to report 3Q26 results on August 5th and