More growth, diversification and value - delivering on the blueprint; Stay OW and raise TP 4%

Research evidence excerpt

More growth, diversification and value - delivering on the blueprint; Stay OW and raise TP 4%

d

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)sanctioning projects within it - management cited 4-5 major FIDs already YTD

Adj. EPS (€)

including Côte d'Ivoire, Indonesia and Cyprus. Beyond 2030, Eni framed "unique 2025A 2026E 2027E

visibility" on growth extension with rising diversification, including enhanced Q1 0.46 0.44A

optionality in Argentina, Venezuela and Indonesia; 2) Cash return. An upgraded Q2 0.37 0.79A

FY CFFO target unlocks additional shareholder returns, with the buyback raised Q3 0.41 0.67

Q4 0.40 0.54

to €3.4bn (60% of CFFO upside vs. original CMD budget) and special dividend FY 1.64 2.46 2.44

potential triggered by a FY re-mark of the refining margin assumption to $14/bbl

(ie: >50% above a $6 start point). Assuming the $14/bbl holds, a 100% payout of Style Exposure

surplus cash over the >50% threshold implies the aforementioned €400m forecast.

Alongside that, CFO Gattei referenced 2026 buyback potential of up to €4bn under

higher price scenarios; we note this corresponds to upstream O&G prices also

reaching the threshold beyond which special divs would be triggered ($90/bbl and

€54/MWh respectively); 3) Non-O&G drivers. After being subdued by planned

maintenance in 1H, refining throughput is expected to be much stronger in 2H,

including max availability in 3Q (TAR at Taranto originally slated for Sept

deferred to YE). The July SERM has averaged >$30/bbl) with realised margins

likely carrying a $2–3/bbl discount for freight and crude differentials. In Chems,

Versalis losses narrowed in 2Q and transformation gains are seen as running

slightly ahead at €280–300m vs. a €250m annual target. The transition businesses