Greggs and B&M: Bears turning into Bulls? Better risk-reward in GRG vs BME

Research evidence excerpt

Greggs and B&M: Bears turning into Bulls? Better risk-reward in GRG vs BME

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

30 July 2026

Greggs and B&M

Bears turning into Bulls? Better risk-reward in GRG vs

BME

How did we find Greggs’ update? European Food Retail

The inflection we talked about appears evident now. We see materially more Borja Olcese AC

(34-91) 516-1511

positives than negatives in Greggs’ 1H26 results. First, GRG delivered well above borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

consensus expectations on EBIT (+23% y/y, with margins +100bps y/y, and +9% J.P. Morgan Securities plc

vs consensus) and PBT (+20% y/y, +4% vs consensus), also slightly ahead of our Palak Garg

estimates. Second, GRG reiterated its FY26 profit outlook, which implies a (91-22) 6157-5102

relatively undemanding 2H, while also de-risking assumptions through lower cost palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

inflation guidance (c2% for FY26 vs c3% previously) and reduced capex J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

expectations of c£180mn (vs £200mn previously). Third, GRG remains in a net

Specialist Sales contact details:

cash position and delivered y/y operating cash flow growth ahead of expectations,

clearly flagging scope for buybacks in due course. The main negative remains the Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

European Consumer

pressured volume exit rate, with +1% LFL in 2P26 (implying c-1% to -2% (44-20) 3493-3709

volumes). That said, management sounded notably constructive on July trading, olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

helped by receding heatwaves, and appeared more confident that LFLs can

improve from here. This commentary alone drove roughly 500bps of incremental

intra-day share price movement.

Key takeaway. We see GRG’s update as proof of an idiosyncratic investment case