BASF SE: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

BASF SE: Model update

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

30 July 2026

BASF SE Underweight

BASFn.DE, BAS GR

Model update Price (29 Jul 26):€50.86

Price Target (Dec-27):€40.00

BASF’s 2Q26 group results were in line with the headline figures preannounced European Chemicals

ACearlier this month. However, 2Q EBITDA/EBIT were flattered by materially Chetan Udeshi, CFA

stronger-than-expected “Others” earnings, driven by gains on commodity hedging (44-20) 7742-7034

derivatives. Core segment earnings, in aggregate, were below our prior expectations. chetan.x.udeshi@jpmorgan.com

The company also cited a phasing benefit in 2Q from some pull-forward of deliveries J.P. Morgan Securities plc

in the Agricultural Solutions division in Latin America. Angelina Glazova, CFA

(44-20) 7134-8379

The recently upgraded FY26 guidance was reiterated. On 3Q trends, management angelina.glazova@jpmorgan.com

noted that margins across most commodity chemical chains in China have reverted to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

pre-conflict levels, while 3Q-to-date volumes have remained consistent with 2Q Kanchan Sangtani

trends (i.e., no evidence so far of material destocking or demand weakness). BASF (91-22) 6157-3639

expects 3Q26 adj. EBITDA to be at least in line with 3Q25, with upside potential if kanchan.sangtani@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

the trading environment remains supportive. We note 3Q adj. EBITDA consensus

implies ~6% YoY growth. Specialist Sales contact details:

The company also announced a new €1bn share buyback starting next month. This Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales -

European Industrials

appears aggressive to us given (i) net debt/EBITDA of 2.4x at 1H26 is somewhat

(44-20) 7742-8733