Daily Economic Briefing: Trust, don‘t verify

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Trust, don‘t verify

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

29 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Trust, don’t verify

• In a meeting with unusually high uncertainty around the outcome, the FOMC Economic and Policy Research

left rates unchanged. This was in line with our expectations, as were the Maia Crook

multiple hawkish dissents. We anticipated two — Hammack and Logan — who (1-212) 622-8435

were joined by Kashkari. The statement was effectively unchanged and again maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

ended with the promise that “the Committee will deliver price stability.” JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Alex Gallin

• How the FOMC delivers on this promise was the main focus of the press (1-212) 270-5492

conference. Chair Warsh’s prepared remarks skewed hawkish in our NLP as he alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

1) used aggressive language to emphasize that the Fed does not have a soft JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

inflation target above 2% and 2) argued that the recent move toward higher Nora Szentivanyi

market interest rates was a response to data that was important info for the Fed. (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

• However, Warsh’s message shifted in the Q&A. Most importantly, he J.P. Morgan Securities plc

undermined his inflation fighting credibility by failing to endorse a well- Joseph Lupton

defined target. He responded to a question on defining a 2% inflation target (1-212) 834-5735

with the following: joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

“I suspect the task force might have something to add, but I'll say this. ... When we

talk about measures of inflation or something else, and we describe those measures

as being consistent with their objectives, we might make them such as they are not

very good measures or very good objectives.