Old Dominion Freight Line: Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Old Dominion Freight Line: Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

Old Dominion Freight Line Neutral

ODFL, ODFL US

Highlights from Calls with the Company and Model Price (28 Jul 26):$226.28

Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$250.00 Prior (Dec-26):$234.00

ODFL traded modestly ahead of the peer group after the 2Q26 beat (details here) as

July MTD tonnage did not turn positive as some had hoped, but did meaningfully Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingoutperform normal seasonality which we believe would drive upside to the 3Q26

guide if this trend continues. Management highlighted the considerable cost progress Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

made through the downturn, noting direct operating costs ran ~200-250bps better in (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

2Q26 than in 2Q22 despite handling ~10,000 fewer shipments per day, a setup that we

expect leaves substantial operating leverage to capture as volumes inflect. OD appears Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

to have enough door and equipment capacity to deliver +45-50% incremental margins grady.carr@jpmchase.com

as volume growth accelerates, while continued workforce productivity gains should

Brandon Wexler

help keep headcount flat into year end. Overall, while we acknowledge OD’s moment (1-212) 622-1956

is approaching as we head into an upcycle with peers already beginning to run into brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

capacity constraints and OD in prime position to capitalize after building significant J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

excess capacity and investing throughout the downturn, we remain Neutral at this

point given the stretched valuation.

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

• Lay of the land for 3Q.