JPM Mining Daily: Iron Ore +0.1%, Thermal Coal +3.2%, RIO/MIN/NST/LTR/NIC Results, Glencore, Zijin Gold & More

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Mining Daily: Iron Ore +0.1%, Thermal Coal +3.2%, RIO/MIN/NST/LTR/NIC Results, Glencore, Zijin Gold & More

Lyndon Fagan AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-8648 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

split, plus H1 unit costs are tracking better vs our fears for industry blow-outs. The key focus

for H1’26 financials is GLEN’s interlinked net debt and ambition for top-up distributions; we

forecast H1 net debt at $11.3bn, which net of the ~$3.8bn Bunge stake should leave ~$1bn

of capital headroom for a buyback. The potential for disappointment could be a larger

working capital increase (JPMe -$1.2bn) that drives higher net debt. We are Neutral rated

with our Dec’27 PT revised to £5.10/sh (prev £5.20/sh) and ZAR 112/sh (prev ZAR 114/sh).

Zijin Gold International - H

Allied Gold dust settled; organic ramp up to support growth until further acquisitions

Allied Gold and Zijin Gold announced the termination of Zijin Gold’s acquisition of Allied

Gold on 29 Jul (link), with Zijin Gold instead agreeing to subscribe for ~US$295mn of Allied

shares, representing an expected ~9.2% stake upon completion. We believe the risk of non-

completion has already been largely reflected in the share price (underperforming gold peers

by ~20% since May). Zijin Gold’s valuation is inexpensive in our view even after removing

Allied Gold’s contribution and marking to market gold price at ~13x FY27E P/E. We

therefore see the termination of the deal as an overhang removal. Excluding Allied, we still

expect Zijin Gold’s organic mine growth to support production growth from 59.2t in 2026,

including Porgera, to 70-75t in 2028. We see increasing chance for further M&A with gold

prices pulling back, and Zijin Gold is still intact to achieve its longer-term 100t production