ArcBest: Highlights from Calls with Management and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

ArcBest: Highlights from Calls with Management and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

ArcBest Neutral

ARCB, ARCB US

Highlights from Calls with Management and Model Price (28 Jul 26):$149.48

Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$171.00 Prior (Dec-26):$147.00

ARCB underperformed as the market looked past the 2Q26 beat and focused on a 3Q

OR guide that is only in line with normal seasonality. The accelerating tonnage growth Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippinginto July continues to be driven by a mix shift to heavier weighted shipments and the

expanding dynamic quote pool, rather than a genuine volume recovery, as Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

management confirmed core LTL customers are still shipping less as there is limited (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

visibility to a broad-based inflection in industrial demand. The restructuring

announced earlier this month should be well received as it simplifies the go-to-market Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

model, closes a handful of smaller-market service centers, and is expected to generate grady.carr@jpmchase.com

meaningful annualized cost savings. Lastly, the turnaround at Asset-Light continued

Brandon Wexler

in 2Q despite tough market conditions, and this segment could be more of an earnings (1-212) 622-1956

driver if it can sustain its record productivity gains and managed solutions growth. brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Flat 3Q OR guide hinges in part on fuel. Demand momentum continued into

July with tonnage up +8% YoY on accelerating weight per shipment which

reached +11% YoY and more than offset the -3% YoY decline in shipments per Key Changes (FYE Dec)

day. Sequentially, tonnage fell just -1% in July which outperformed the Prev Cur Δ