Avis Budget Group: Remain UW as Choppy Rental Industry Backdrop Coincides w/ Seasonal Used Industry Pressure; Move to Lower-end of FY26 EBITDA Guidance and Establish $145 Dec 27 PT

Research evidence excerpt

Avis Budget Group: Remain UW as Choppy Rental Industry Backdrop Coincides w/ Seasonal Used Industry Pressure; Move to Lower-end of FY26 EBITDA Guidance and Establish $145 Dec 27 PT

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

Avis Budget Group

Remain UW as Choppy Rental Industry Backdrop Underweight

Coincides w/ Seasonal Used Industry Pressure; Move CAR, CAR US

to Lower-end of FY26 EBITDA Guidance and Establish Price (28 Jul 26):$166.32

$145 Dec 27 PT ▼Price Target (Dec-27):$145.00 Prior (Dec-26):$170.00

CAR’s 2Q EBITDA beat and reaffirmed FY26 guidance (click here for our initial

take) did little to bolster confidence, as underlying market fundamentals, particularly

rental demand and pricing, deteriorated over the course of 2Q and into 3Q, with FIFA

WC related tailwinds failing to materialize. While we continue to view CAR as a solid

operator and recognize management’s nimble approach to fleet management, most

recently demonstrated by the 2Q disposition pull forward, as a core strength

supporting long-term earnings resilience, the outlook for 2H remains choppy,

Autos & Auto Parts

especially in context of the combination of increasing off-lease used vehicle supply

entering a seasonally weaker pricing environment, together with ongoing softness in Rajat Gupta AC

travel demand. Against this environment, we continue to see risk-reward skewed to (1-212) 622-6382

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

the downside and would look to revisit our stance once the industry navigates through

Jash Patwa

the upcoming turbulence in the used vehicle market and/or as we gain greater visibility

(1-212) 622-5472

on growth differentiation tied to AV fleet management or Avis First. We model 3Q26 jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

EBITDA of $560 mn vs.