Bolivia: Growth stuck in a slump, IMF agreement in sight

Research evidence excerpt

Bolivia: Growth stuck in a slump, IMF agreement in sight

stent with elevated uncertainty and a sharp

contraction in credit. Cement production and sales also posted double-digit declines in the

last three months through April, down 21.5% and 18.4% oya, respectively. Seasonally

adjusted momentum remains deeply negative across these indicators.

By contrast, tourism has improved, with passenger air transport up 14.2% oya in the last three

months through May. Energy demand has also firmed, up 3.4% oya (through May). Cargo

transport rose 9.0% oya, though seasonally adjusted momentum has turned negative again.

Consistent with weak activity, import volumes fell 9.0% oya in the last three months through

May. Private-sector real wages declined 9.7% oya in 1Q, and we expect further contraction

amid the inflation acceleration in 2Q driven by protests and road blockades.

White smoke on the IMF program

Bolivia’s government announced it has reached a technical agreement with the IMF on a

US$1.9bn (SDR 1.4bn), 36‑month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), pending approval by the

IMF Executive Board, “intended to support the Bolivian government’s comprehensive

economic reform agenda”. The program amounts to 570% of Bolivia’s quota, just below the

600% normal-access threshold. Our baseline scenario was already incorporating an IMF

program being announced. We now await Board approval and further details on the program

disbursements and conditionalities.

According to the IMF statement, the program’s overarching goals are to restore

macroeconomic stability, rebuild international reserves, and reduce fiscal and external

vulnerabilities while strengthening social protection and enabling sustainable, private-

sector-led growth. The IMF statement highlights Bolivia’s recent challenges—persistent