PetroChina: Thoughts on the reported LNG Canada stake sale - monetising assets when LNG prices are high?

Research evidence excerpt

PetroChina: Thoughts on the reported LNG Canada stake sale - monetising assets when LNG prices are high?

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book value of the asset. Our FY26 forecast already conservatively models in vicky.hsia@jpmorgan.com

Rmb15bn impairment for FY26, in line with the historical trend (Figure 4Chinaoilmajorshistoricalimpairments). J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

• About LNG Canada: LNG Canada is a JV between Shell (40%), Petronas

(20%), Mitsubishi (15%), PetroChina (15%), KOGAS (5%) and MidOcean

Energy (5%). Phase 1 capacity is 14Mtpa, which began commissioning in

2Q25 and is expected to achieve full two-train capacity in 2H26. Phase 2 is a

planned expansion project with another 14Mtpa capacity. Shell has guided for

the FID to be achieved by the end of 2026, and the project is receiving

significant government support to fast-track its development. Assuming an

FID in 2H26, Phase 2 might come online in the early 2030s.

• Monetizing LNG assets in a higher LNG price environment? In 4Q25,

Petronas sold a 5% stake in LNG Canada to MidOcean Energy. The deal also

includes a 20% stake in Petronas’ Canadian upstream assets that feed into LNG

Canada. Reuters reported that the deal price was slightly above US$3bn.

PetroChina also holds equity in upstream assets linked to LNG Canada,

although with smaller reserves compared to Petronas. In 2018, PetroChina

disclosed that the board had approved $335mn in pre-FID investment in LNG

Canada, and $3.125bn in post-FID investment (total $3.46bn).

• A selldown could reduce risk exposure to Phase 2: LNG Canada has not

disclosed or guided the official project cost. Woodmac estimates the project

capex at CAD$26bn ($19.5bn or $1400/tpa) for Phase 1, and CAD$18.2bn

($13.65bn or $975/tpa) for Phase 2.