Bunge Global SA: Maybe Not Good Enough for Today, But Earnings Remain on Upward Inflection; Maintain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Bunge Global SA: Maybe Not Good Enough for Today, But Earnings Remain on Upward Inflection; Maintain OW

ce target. Our annual estimates are little changed. Style Exposure

2026 goes to $9.69 from $9.72, 2027 remains $12.01, and 2028 goes to $12.70

from $12.69. Our December 2027 price target goes to $140 from $142, mainly

for slightly higher working capital and cap ex assumptions.

• A key question we fielded today was why results were not better in the

Soybean Processing and Refining segment and what implications this

might have going forward. Adjusted EBIT per metric ton (total volume) was

down slightly Q-Q ($21.7, versus $22.5 in 1Q), despite what seemed to be

much improved spot margins in most regions of the world. We see three

considerations for the step down. First, low margin Soybean Merchandising

volumes were up significantly Q-Q and likely pulled down the blended number

(excluding this volume, EBIT per MT was up ~10% Q/Q). Second, it is possible

that the timing of when BG locked in margins limited the flow through of

higher spot margins in 2Q. Third, regional weightings could be a factor. In

1Q25, soybean crush volumes were split 44% North America versus 56%

South America, but the split was 38%/62% in 2Q26. We thought the messaging

for 2H26 was that margins would get progressively better. The main region of

expected improvement is North America, where BG has booked margins for

3Q that are better than in 2Q. The company also has visibility into 4Q

improving, based on curves.Additionally, a regional shift to North America

(where margins are higher than in South America, especially in 2H on

seasonality) should aid blended margins. Refined oil margins are likely

trending higher in North America. Today’s prepared commentary indicated