North American Energy Infrastructure: 2Q26 Earnings PM Handbook; Commodity Backdrop, Renewed GeoPolitical Volatility, Permian Egress/ Positive Waha, and Power Announcements Prime Runway Into Prints

Research evidence excerpt

North American Energy Infrastructure: 2Q26 Earnings PM Handbook; Commodity Backdrop, Renewed GeoPolitical Volatility, Permian Egress/ Positive Waha, and Power Announcements Prime Runway Into Prints

ing with the company (including at the JPM Natural Resources Conference)

and updating our model, we forecast 2Q26 adj EBITDA of $265mm. The result

compares to the $258mm prior JPMe. Strong export demand drove elevated

throughput on Marketlink early in 2Q26, with Marketing also capitalizing on

Houston-Hardisty spread widening. Prairie Connector progress continues after

SOBO confirmed a JV with Bridger to jointly acquire Liberty Pipeline ROW from

Tallgrass. The partnership targets a permit revision from 24-inch to 36-inch, creating

a largely permitted corridor from Hardisty to Cushing and beyond (though more

work to be done here). Management targets mid-2027 FID and ISD by year-end

2028/early 2029, with construction sequenced to prioritize the Canada-to-Guernsey

segment to mitigate political transition risk. Sovereign backstopping and DOE loan

guarantees at the JV level remain the primary risk mitigation levers ahead of

sanctioning. Separately, following first oil at Blackrod and IPC tracking ahead of

schedule, we expect an update on phase 2 discussions alongside results. Rounding

out recent updates, the EPA and DOJ announced a $26.8mm civil penalty settlement

with SOBO over the 2022 Kansas pipeline rupture. Weighing the above, we

establish a $34 Dec-27 PT.

• SUN: strong quarter & guidance raise expected. After updating our model we

forecast 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of $953mm. On Fuel Distribution, we model $534mm,

reflecting sequentially stronger volumes (3.8bn gallons in 1Q), weighing ongoing

PKI integration paired with consistent bolt-on M&A, collectively driving higher