Costa Rica: A tale of two (entwined) economies

Research evidence excerpt

Costa Rica: A tale of two (entwined) economies

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

29 July 2026

Costa Rica: A tale of two

(entwined) economies

• FTZ-led growth has cooled year-to-date, unwinding some of 2025’s outsized Emerging Markets Economic and

strength. Policy Research

• The early 2026 deceleration is primarily a base-effect story: last year’s tariff- Mariana Zepeda

driven pre-shipping inflated 2025, and that boost is now dropping out. (1-212) 272-0919

mariana.n.zepeda@jpmorgan.com

• Manufacturing remains a key growth pillar, but it is still a two-speed story, with Katherine Marney

export-linked production holding up better than the domestically-oriented (1-212) 834-2285

base. katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Meanwhile, domestic-demand sectors are holding the line on supportive

fundamentals, keeping growth relatively broad-based.

• Still, GDP growth will decelerate to 3.6% in 2025 from 4.5% last year.

• Professional services should remain a key offset as export-linked value-add

increasingly shows up domestically.

Economic activity gained momentum in May, rising 0.7%m/m (3%oya). Activity

ex. Free Trade Zones (FTZs, which includes firms operating within a preferential

fiscal regime), however, was more subdued on the month (0.3%m/m), though still

a touch stronger than on a year-ago basis (2.5%oya) (Figure 1). Monthly noise

aside, the ex. FTZ series had outpaced the FTZ-inclusive measure until May,

averaging 3.4%oya growth versus 3.2%oya. This represented a break from the

post-2021 norm, when headline growth typically ran about 1.6%-pt faster than ex-

FTZ activity, with the gap between the two even stretching to 7.8%-pt in mid-2025.

Even so, FTZs remain an important driver of Costa Rica’s growth story: the FTZ