Colombia Economics: Citi Expectations Survey – July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Colombia Economics: Citi Expectations Survey – July 2026

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29 Jul 2026 12:33:59 ET │ 9 pages

Colombia Economics

Citi Expectations Survey – July 2026

CITI'S TAKE

Esteban Tamayo AC

Survey results suggest inflation persistence remains the dominant +1-212-816-6580

constraint, reinforcing expectations of continued policy tightening. The esteban.tamayo@citi.com

median respondent expects a 50bp hike at the July meeting, taking the

policy rate to 12.50% from the current 12.00%, with the distribution heavily

concentrated around this outcome and only limited dispersion toward a

larger move. At the same time, inflation expectations continued to drift

higher across the horizon, while the median end-2026 policy rate increased

to 12.50% from 12.25% in the previous survey. Taken together, the results

point to a tightening cycle that may be approaching its terminal rate but is

expected to remain restrictive for longer, while growth expectations remain

subdued and broadly unchanged.

Activity —Growth expectations remained broadly stable and continue to point to an

economy expanding below potential. The average respondent expects GDP growth

of 2.40% in 2026, unchanged from the previous survey, while growth expectations

for 2027 stand at 2.20%. Expectations for 2028 average 2.80%, suggesting only a

gradual normalization beyond the current restrictive policy environment and little

evidence of a meaningful acceleration in domestic demand.

Inflation — Expectations increased further and continue to signal persistent

disinflation challenges. Average year-end inflation expectations rose to 6.74% for

2026 from 6.62% previously, while expectations for end-2027 increased to 5.02%

from 4.96%. The median respondent sees July inflation at 0.33% MoM, broadly in