Lancashire Resetting estimates across the board post 1H26

Research evidence excerpt

Lancashire Resetting estimates across the board post 1H26

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

29 July 2026

Lancashire Neutral

LRE.L, LRE LN

Resetting estimates across the board post 1H26 Price (28 Jul 26):660p

Price Target (Dec-27):650p

We reduce our estimates for Lancashire following its 1H26 results to reflect the European Insurance

ACearnings miss, a higher-than-expected starting point for the underlying combined Kamran M Hossain

ratio than we had expected and a more competitive market environment. Our 2026- (44-20) 3493-3780

28E PBT estimates decline by ~15% on average and we maintain our PT of 650p kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

as of Dec-27 end. Nadia Claressa

(44-20) 7134-7613

For 2026E, we now assume an undiscounted combined ratio of 88.2% (vs 84.1% nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

previously) which increases to ~90% in 2028E. While the company does not Farooq Hanif

disclose a large loss budget, we assume annual major losses of ~14ppt, which we (44 207) 742-8091

view as broadly consistent with the historical average. We also trim our topline farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

forecasts modestly and now expect revenues to be broadly stable over 2026–28E. Bingdi Fan, CFA

(44-20) 7742-5336

As the market softens, we expect Lancashire to continue its track record of bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

returning a high proportion of earnings to shareholders. Our dividend forecasts

imply a ~95-100% payout ratio over FY26-28E, supported by the company’s Specialist Sales contact details:

strong capital position. Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

European Financials

Table 1: Lancashire - summary of estimate changes (44-20) 7134-0355

$m ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

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