Chandra Asri Pacific: First Take: 2Q26 well supported by oil refining business, but petrochemicals remain challenging

Research evidence excerpt

Chandra Asri Pacific: First Take: 2Q26 well supported by oil refining business, but petrochemicals remain challenging

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

29 July 2026

Chandra Asri Pacific Neutral

TPIA.JK, TPIA IJ

First Take: 2Q26 well supported by oil refining business, Price (29 Jul 26):Rp2,200

but petrochemicals remain challenging Price Target (Dec-27):Rp1,960

Our First Take: TPIA’s 2Q26 earnings came in at $137mn, down 6% q/q but

inflecting from a net loss a year-ago. 2Q26 EBITDA paints a similar picture, down

by 38% q/q but inflecting from loss-making territory. The notable y/y improvement

was largely driven by Aster’s oil refinery, which is still riding on the elevated

refining margin environment due to the Middle East conflict. The sequential

decline in EBITDA is expected due to stock gains in 1Q26, while 2Q26

profitability likely reflects the elevated crude feedstock premiums. The Indonesia Energy

ACpetrochemical business remained loss-making in 2Q26, although narrowing from Arnanto Januri

the previous quarter. PE/PP spreads saw a temporary spike in May-June due to (622-1) 5291 8047

product scarcity, but have since reversed to below mid-cycle levels. Refining arnanto.januri@jpmorgan.com

margins are currently above 2Q26 average, hence 3Q26 EBITDA might trend PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

higher, if sustained. TPIA has outperformed JCI by 24% over the past 1M as Benny Kurniawan, CFA

earnings momentum remains positive. Assuming the stock trades based on its oil (62-21) 5291 8024

benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.com

refining business, the stock trades at $61mn EV/kbd of refinery capacity (237kbd) PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

— a premium versus APAC refiners at $10/25mn/kbd and greenfield capex at $25-

Parsley Ong

30mn/kbd (report); remain N.