Liontown Resources: 4Q26: Material valuation downgrade on revised production/costs/capex; Retain OW as recent share price correction looks overdone

Research evidence excerpt

Liontown Resources: 4Q26: Material valuation downgrade on revised production/costs/capex; Retain OW as recent share price correction looks overdone

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

29 July 2026

Liontown Resources

4Q26: Material valuation downgrade on revised Overweight

production/costs/capex; Retain OW as recent share LTR.AX, LTR AU

price correction looks overdone Price (29 Jul 26):A$1.11

▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$1.50

Prior (Jun-27):A$2.30

Key takeaways: 1) Q4 results and the FY27 guidance were disapointing vs JPMe

on all fronts – weaker-than-forecast operating metrics in the quarter and lower Australia

production / higher costs and capex in FY27; 2) LTR is targeting FID of the Head of Australia Metals & Mining

Kathleen Valley expansion in September – we assume $330m capex with first AC Lyndon Fagan

production in FY29 (prev FY31). Revisions to our model include: a) lowering life (61-2) 9003-8648

of mine recoveries from 80% to 75%; and b) higher costs/capex over the forecast lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

period. Our LTR model has significant operating leverage to the less favorable J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

assumptions, leading to a 38% NPV hit. We note LTR is down 30% YTD, while Jonathon Sharp

spodumene is up 30% (ASX200 +4%). We continue to view this as a disconnect. (61 2) 9003-8312

The stock is trading on a P/NPV of 0.76x under our revised valuation. Current jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

sentiment towards the company is close to maximum bearishness, in our view, and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

we retain our OW, looking for a bounce back from current levels. PT lowered to Devwrat Vegad

$1.50/sh. Our lithium sector preference remains PLS. (91-22) 6157-3608

devwrat.vegad@jpmchase.com

• Results weak across the board vs JPMe.