G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report - 29th July

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 2026

29 July 2026

JPY Very little to update on here, Fed tonight (see GBP) should be more influential than the BoJ on

Friday – is there a chance we see the MoF come in and chase a dovish reaction – no one is

talking about it this time. The other interesting thing to note is that month end is a notorious time

for rebalancing and as we enter the first month end since the authorities called for reallocation,

we have started to see local RM JPY demand (second day in a row). Waiting for more evidence

before scaling JPY longs back up again so keeping a core for now.

CHF CHF weakness continued yesterday, although at a lesser pace with EURCHF grinding up to a

high of 0.9332, approaching the yearly highs at 0.9350. I have taken profit on CHF shorts,

although perhaps a little early as frustratingly missed a large part of the sources move. Anyway,

focus turns to the FOMC tonight where base case is they hold and we get two or less dissents. A

hike would however see USDCHF as my first area to buy dollars, and there isn’t too much in the

way or resistance now we are above 0.8120/40, with the first area coming in at 0.8333. Flow

wise we continue to see systematics buy CHF (three day streak), although RM were CHF sellers

yesterday.

AUD Q2 inflation out of Australia printed softer than market forecasts at 0.6% while trimmed landed

at 0.8%, but crucially both were below RBA forecasts of 1.4% and 1.00%. FI rallied 10-12 bps

after the data, although AUDUSD is less than 20 points below the level entering the print,

suggesting I should have ignored my 2:15 a.m. alarm call. The print removes any chance of a