HF Sinclair: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

HF Sinclair: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update

Arun Jayaram AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8541 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We maintain our Neutral rating. DINO has grown its refining

footprint via two major acquisitions, with the integration largely

complete but potential upside from synergy realizations from

here. The company is highly focused on reliability work within

refining, which has been mostly carried out during maintenance

turnarounds. Lubricants had previously been considered a

source of future value unlock, while management is now

characterizing the business as “independent,” which we think

means it is feasible to separate, while the lubes strategy for now

YTD 1m 3m 12m appears to be focused around continuing to improve the business

Abs 93.8% 30.8% 42.4% 98.5% organically or via bolt-on acquisitions. The company has re-

Rel 85.3% 29.7% 38.3% 82.3%

committed to capital returns to shareholders, which have been

Company Data consistently strong and bolstered by sales from the Sinclair

Shares O/S (mn) 188 family, with ~7.6% current ownership remaining. We maintain

52-week range ($) 94.22-42.16 our Neutral rating given our preference for coastal vs. inland

Market cap ($ mn) 16,798.22

Exchange rate 1.00 refiners.

Free float (%) 86.3%

Valuation3M ADV (mn) 2.55

3M ADV ($ mn) 188.1 Our price target is based on a 2027E target FCF/EV yield of

Volatility (90 Day) 39 ~13.5%, which reflects a discount to its refining peers given

Index S&P 500

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 8|8|1 supernormal earnings this cycle from geopolitical tailwinds.

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

Performance Drivers$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 26,869 32,513 30,000