US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 29, 2026

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF

• TECH EARNINGS PREVIEW – META, MSFT, and QCOM

• TRADING THE FED – Mkt Intel scenario analysis

• FED DAY BREAKEVENS – Rates Trader Vivek Nangia

• EARNINGS: DAILY MACRO READ-THROUGH – Ellen updates us on results from yesterday

• US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish and we update the Monetization Menu

• GLOBAL MKT INTEL – Our Monthly Thematic Pulse is here; we look at Global Tech, Semis, and

Flows across Thematics.

• NEW DA&A PODCAST – Momentum vs. fundamentals in the AI trade: Insights from BlackRock

(here).

JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES

• SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.2%, RTY +0.2%. WTI +356bps at $82.08, NatGas -64bps to $2.65, UK NatGas

+179bps to £1.4415, Gold +12bps to $4,035, Silver +123bps to $57.86, 10Y @ 4.614%, and VIX @

18.28.

• US: Futures are higher, yields are higher, and USD is lower as the Fed decision comes later today.

Feroli sees the Fed on hold with 2x hawkish dissents; the market is pricing a 32% chance of a hike.

Overnight, Korea / Semis took another leg lower with JPM’s Mixo Das seeing the levered ETF unwind

in its 9th inning (90% complete). With hyperscaler earnings today / tmrw, perhaps we finally establish

a floor within the Tech trade. Futs are rallying from overnight lows with all 3 major indices in the

green, with Tech flipping from laggard to leader. Semis are higher pre-mkt with Mag7 mixed.

Defensives are leading Cyclicals (ex-Tech & Energy) with the Energy bid returning on news of

renewed attacks in the Middle East. Elsewhere, bond yields are up 1-2bp as the curve flattens, USD

is weaker, and cmdtys are bid led by Energy and Metals. The macro focus is on the Fed.

• EU/UK: Major markets are all lower with Spain the biggest laggard. Regional bond yields are higher