Mid-Year Prospects: Insurance

Research evidence excerpt

Mid-Year Prospects: Insurance

g in material Overweight

downside risk to earnings from both AI risks and the rate cycle. We would flag: (1) Price (29 Jul 26): A$29.04

AI risk to some degree is now in the price, which cannot be said for other sectors;

Price Target (Dec-26): A$35.00

(2) Brokers have demonstrated resilient earnings growth in the face of softening

rates by pulling fee and commission levers; (3) AUB received a takeover bid from

EQT late last year ($45 per share), and SDF is currently under offer, highlighting

ongoing takeover interest in the space. We think the deal failed in the face of a sharp

sell off in peer valuations globally (with the buyer seeking a price reduction), but

that peer share price trends are now unwinding; and (4) US Brokers have rerated

~15%+ in the last month whilst AUB has remained flat.

J.P. Morgan Securities plc is acting as financial adviser and

corporate broker to Intertek Group plc (“Intertek”) in

connection with the recommended cash offer to acquire the

Least Preferred – Medibank Private Limited (MPL AU, N) entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of

Intertek by Isotope Bidco Limited (a newly formed company

Claims inflation increasing. MPL had 1H26 inflation per policy unit quoted as to be indirectly owned by EQT X EUR SCSp and EQT X

2.5% - up 20 bps on the pcp, but helped by an unexpected risk equalisation benefit USD SCSp, each acting through its manager (gérant) EQT

of ~50 bps (that MPL say will unwind) as well as an inflated 1H25 COVID base FundminorityManagementshareholdersS.àincluding,r.l., togetheramongwithothers,certainADIAindirectand

of ~1.3% - i.e. cash inflation removing the speed up of claims is ~2.5% + 1.3% + Mubadala) as announced on 16th April 2026 and updated on

~0.5% = 4.3%.