EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com EM FX Daily Report - 29th July 2026

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 29 July 2026

PLN The recovery in risk sentiment and pullback in energy prices this week provided some relief

across CE3, and PLN also benefited from the improved external backdrop, but the rallies in

PLN to become harder to sustain as EURPLN approaches the lower end of its recent range. On

a relative basis, we continue to prefer HUF within CE3. Once the initial risk-recovery move has

played out, we expect PLN to underperform, given the comparatively dovish monetary-policy

reaction function from the NBP and Governor Glapiński.

HUF Fairly tedious back and forth on Iran, although we did see some chasing of EURHUF lower

after the article stating mediators believe US/Iran are close to a breakthrough. Flow was

interesting yesterday where all sectors were buying HUF, with systematics on a 4 day buying

streak and RM on three. Interesting because after the Varga comments I thought there would be

less interest to sell EURHUF below 360, but clearly if risk is trading well there is appetite to get

back into HUF. Remain happy running around just under half my EURHUF shorts, cognizant of

the FOMC tonight. Base case is they don’t hike and we get two or less dissents, but a hike

could see us challenge 365 again.

CZK Very little action in EURCZK as developments from the Middle East continue to leave

investors in the dark, with yesterday’s newsflow sounding more positive while the Iranians

struck American military bases in the region overnight. We continue to express long HUF vs

CZK following Kubicek’s dovish comments last week, but admittedly, the forint has been doing

most of the heavy lifting.