The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

capital(i.e. higher inventories), lower YoY EBITDA, and elevated CAPEX, related to

the final phase of corn ethanol industry, leading leverage to increase. Based on

this, we keep our Buy and decrease our TP to R$17.0/sh(from R$20.0/sh),

factoring the lower 2Q26 figures, higher CAPEX in the near term, and lower

prices/margins in Industry for the upcoming periods.

Gabriel Barra

Magazine Luiza (MGLU3.SA) - Model Update Ahead of 2Q26: B&M Running Well,

Online Struggling; Keep Neutral/HR

We update our model ahead of 2Q26 results and incorporate Citi’s revised SELIC

assumptions for 2026/2027 (14.5%/13.8% vs. 14.3%/13.3% previously). While we

remain constructive on B&M, forecasting SSS of ~8% in 2Q26 (vs. ~6% in 1Q26),

we are becoming more cautious on online trends despite the World Cup tailwind.

We model 1P and 3P sales broadly in line with 1Q26, down 8% and 12% YoY,

respectively, reflecting the greater competitive pressure from the marketplaces –

recall MELI’s new shipping policy effectively started in June 2025. The positive, in

our view, is continued OPEX discipline, which should offset most of the operating

deleverage, limiting adjusted EBITDA margin contraction to just 30bps YoY despite

a 2% decline in revenue. Incorporating these changes, we reduce our earnings

estimates by 9%/16% for 2026/2027.

João Pedro Soares | Felipe Husein

Industry

Latin America Retail - LatAm Retail Headline Monitor: Shopee and Mercado Livre

Boost FIDC Portfolios, Manaus Tax Benefit Cut, Shein IPO

In this note, we summarize headlines/news with implications for our coverage. We

hope you find this useful.

Latin America Retail - Quant Positioning: Sector Sentiment Remains Negative;

MELI Shifts from Consensus Short to Two-Way Debate