SABIC Q2 First Take: Better than we expected volumes and EBITDA but lower net income and the dividend has been cut

Research evidence excerpt

SABIC Q2 First Take: Better than we expected volumes and EBITDA but lower net income and the dividend has been cut

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

29 July 2026

SABIC

Q2 First Take: Better than we expected volumes and Neutral

EBITDA but lower net income and the dividend has 2010.SE, SABIC AB

been cut Price (28 Jul 26):SRls51.30

Price Target (Dec-27):SRls65.00

Our Take: SABIC reported a better than expected Adj EBITDA of SAR 3,380m CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

AC(JPM 2,585m) driven by volumes down only 33% QoQ vs our 42% expectation, Alex Comer

EBITDA was nonetheless lower than Bloomberg consensus of SAR 4,043m. Adj (44-20) 7134-5945

net income of -ve SAR 380m was below JPM est of SAR 254m and Bloomberg alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

SAR 695m. FCF of -ve SAR 1,400m was surprisingly low given the EBITDA and J.P. Morgan Securities plc

likely impacted by negative working capital. We note SABIC also announced an

H1 dividend of SAR 1.1/share a cut vs the SAR 1.5 share paid in H1 and H2 2025

and our expectation of SAR 1.5/share - somewhat surprising given the strength of

the balance sheet (cf SABIC Agri-N and Yansab both paid flat dividends).

Annualising the H1 dividend, SABIC trades on a yield of 4.3%. Overall a mixed

Q2, encouraging on the volume front and SABIC has done well to circumvent, to

the degree it has, the problems in the SOH however, FCF was weak and the

dividend cut, whilst arguably prudent, also perhaps suggests a lack of confidence

in the outlook. The best case scenario is that the SOH reopens quickly, but as

discussed (here) we continue to expect the petrochemical market to remain

oversupplied for at least another two years and see risks that a weakened OPEC

may not be able to manage the oil market as well as it has done in recent times.