INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 29, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• Iran surprise attack is not retaliatory so a bit different while rejection of Omani proposal to share

SoH indicates the final objective. Our view on the outcome is unchanged. In any case, this is not the

market’s PC1.

• Meanwhile, the Bundesbank explains GE econ resilience to the conflict and noted that GE

exporters may have benefited as Asian competitors were more affected by bottlenecks.

• Focus remains firmly on the AI/Tech/MOMO unwind, and the miss in Korean memory did not help

this am. Our July Thematic Pulse reviews the evolving Tech/AI landscape and includes a

bull/bear framework for Semis, alongside our regular update on thematic flows.

• Key concerns include competitive threats from China — open-source models and DUV production,

even as China SPEs are down again today — as well as circular financing and the role of leverage.

The widening in NVDA CDS, as the receiver of capex with rising FCF, is more concerning than

the move in hyperscalers’ CDS.

• That said, Crowding & the Butterfly Effect remain the main story. It feels increasingly likely that we are

late stage in this process, but we maintain factor hedges because crowding risk has not fully

cleared on our books. It is worth considering whether another leg lower from here could come

with a more pronounced pickup in index correlation. Focus on FOMC (Drew’s scenarios are

here) + MSFT + META today.

• Speaking of broadening, JPM Equity Strategists believe Healthcare could be approaching a more

durable inflection point, supported by valuations, flows, positioning, 2027 earnings acceleration, a

potential gridlock in the upcoming midterms, and a low bar for upside surprises from AI-driven

productivity gains.