Rio Tinto Limited: Strong 1H26 results, with productivity gains the key focus; retain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto Limited: Strong 1H26 results, with productivity gains the key focus; retain OW

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

29 July 2026

Rio Tinto Limited Overweight

RIO.AX, RIO AU

Strong 1H26 results, with productivity gains the key Price (28 Jul 26):A$159.53

focus; retain OW ▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$205.00 Prior (Jun-27):A$207.00

Key takeaways: 1) Underlying 1H26 EBITDA of $14.8bn was in line with JPMe

and consensus; while NPAT of $6.9bn was ahead of consensus, leading to a slightly Australia

better DPS of $2.11ps under the standard 1H 50% payout; ND of $14bn was also Head of Australia Metals & Mining

~$1bn below the street; 2) RIO has outlined $870m of productivity gains in 1H AC Lyndon Fagan

(~$400m from iron ore), with an expected run rate of $1.8bn by the end of the year (61-2) 9003-8648

– while this is an impressive number we believe it is largely captured in our lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

divisional estimates already; and 3) there were no major project updates, with the J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

copper strategy looking at a life extension at KUC (from 2032 to 2040), and further Metals & Mining

drilling at Resolution to inform the final mine design. After updating our model, Jonathon Sharp

our earnings are down 4% for 2026E on slightly lower EBITDA and higher D&A, (61 2) 9003-8312

partly offset by a lower guided ETR of 25% for the year.We retain our OW rating, jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

with the stock trading on a P/NPV of 0.81x and 2027 EV/EBITDA of 5.6x. J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Branko Skocic

• EBITDA in-line, NPAT and ND better than cons. Copper and aluminium (61-3) 9633-4069

made up almost 60% of earnings, showing improved diversification relative to branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

recent years.