Verra Mobility: From Termination to Term Sheet: Avis Re-Engages on a 7-Year Re-Deal

Research evidence excerpt

Verra Mobility: From Termination to Term Sheet: Avis Re-Engages on a 7-Year Re-Deal

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

Verra Mobility Neutral

VRRM, VRRM US

From Termination to Term Sheet: Avis Re-Engages on a Price (28 Jul 26):$4.18

7-Year Re-Deal

North America Small and Mid Cap

On May 26, 2026, Avis’ termination drove Verra shares down ~70% and implied Industrials

a ~$135-145M annualized CS revenue hit. On July 28, Verra re-engaged Avis via Tomohiko Sano AC

a framework agreement on key commercial terms for a new seven-year tolling and (1-212) 622-1099

violations contract, with operational terms still being finalized. Management tomohiko.sano@jpmorgan.com

expects the economics to be materially less favorable, and Avis can selectively Ethan Coyle

insource activities, but we view the outcome as a clear positive outside our and (1-212) 270-0613

ethan.coyle@jpmchase.com

most investors’ base case. We see this as an early win for interim CEO Jon Keyser’s

Brendan Shea, CFA

renewed customer focus and the recent realignment. Key open items include the

(1-212) 622-0770

true financial impact, the new run-rate margin profile, and read-through to 2027 brendan.shea@jpmorgan.com

Hertz and Enterprise renewals. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Termination Fallout: ~70% Drop, Contract Overhang: On May 26, 2026,

Verra announced a termination notice from Avis Budget Group (covered by

Rajat Gupta), initially estimating the loss would reduce annualized CS revenue

by ~$135-$145M and annualized CS segment profit by ~$120-$125M in 2026

(see our note here). Shares fell ~70% in a single day as investor focus quickly

shifted toward the risk surrounding the remaining Hertz and Enterprise

contracts. Shortly after, Verra announced the departure of CEO David Roberts