Mastercard: Quick Read-Across from Visa - Remain Positive on Fundamentals, but Growth Comparisons & Competitive Takeaway Could Weigh

Research evidence excerpt

Mastercard: Quick Read-Across from Visa - Remain Positive on Fundamentals, but Growth Comparisons & Competitive Takeaway Could Weigh

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

28 July 2026

Mastercard

Quick Read-Across from Visa - Remain Positive on Overweight

Fundamentals, but Growth Comparisons & Competitive MA, MA US

Takeaway Could Weigh Price (28 Jul 26):$562.75

Payments, Processors & IT Services

Based on Visa’s F3Q results, we see a mildly negative risk-reward into Tien-tsin Huang, CFA AC

Mastercard’s Thursday print. Notwithstanding Visa’s solid qtr. featuring a (1-212) 622-6632

broad-based beat, after-market reaction to results appears to skew negative, tien-tsin.huang@jpmorgan.com

perhaps reflecting a high buyside bar and concerns that above-trend growth will be Connor Allen

tough to sustain next year. On the positive side, Visa C2Q global, U.S. and cross (1-212) 270-2895

border volume showed sequential trends ahead of comparable expectations at connor.allen@jpmorgan.com

Mastercard. Noteworthy elements include Visa’s July domestic purchase volume Abbey Hochreiner

results being better than feared and showing only a slight deceleration, though we (1-212) 270-5798

abbey.hochreiner@jpmchase.com

think World Cup likely benefits Visa more given favorable mix (e.g. World Cup J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

driving in-bound U.S. cross-border volume that is higher yielding). Additionally,

we think Visa growth is better supported by pricing (notably tokenization pricing

action beginning in April; JPMe ~1ppt benefit) given differences in timing of

pricing across the networks. On the negative side, Visa’s win of NatWest’s

consumer credit portfolio reflects a competitive multi-year takeaway from

Mastercard ($43B 2025 volume, ~1% of MA’s Europe volume), in our view. All