BCA, Retail banking competition (Australia, Japan), Indonesia Forum

Research evidence excerpt

BCA, Retail banking competition (Australia, Japan), Indonesia Forum

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

29 July 2026

BCA, Retail banking competition (Australia, Japan), Indonesia

Forum

Ayano Tsunoda

+81 3 6736 7628

ayano.tsunoda@jpmorgan.com

Key topics in today’s daily:

• FOMC uncertainty: Bullish duration positioning pared back, JPY speculative net short as high as July 2024

• Indonesia Banks: BCA expects NIM recovery in 2H, divergence w/ SOE banks, JPM Indonesia Forum Sep 2-3

• Retail Banking and new entrants: Revolut enters Australia (Andrew’s analysis report), Japan’s Seven Bank enters BAAS

Today - Earnings: Standard Chartered, Nomura, Acom Macro: Australia CPI, FOMC (2am HKT tmrw)

Good morning,

Uncertainty about FOMC is unusually high. Our Client Survey (Treasury), along with our core bond fund and macro HF betas,

indicates bullish duration positioning has been pared back significantly over the last month. (Fig 1 below from Jay Barry note:

Link) Note that JPY net short positioning by speculators remains as high as it was in July 2024.

BCA post-close print yesterday perhaps isn’t a game changer while the country’s macro challenges remain. However, the NIM

outlook shows divergence between BCA and SOE banks as BCA kept NIM guidance unchanged. BCA has been talking down on

its loan growth outlook, but 2Q showed some pick-up in loan growth (+8 YoY vs 1Q +6%) as private sector corporates seem to be

coming to BCA while public sector entities go to SOE banks. (Mandiri downgraded NIM guidance last week. Link) BCA expects

higher yields from new corporate loans (~50-100bps), along w/ bonds and money parked in SRBI to drive NIM higher HoH in

2H. Their slight downgrade in credit cost guidance (50-60bps vs prev 40-50bps) was within the expected range.