HG & HY Consumer Products 2Q26 Earnings Preview: I‘m Gonna Pop Some Tags, Only Got Tariff Refunds in My Pocket!

Research evidence excerpt

HG & HY Consumer Products 2Q26 Earnings Preview: I‘m Gonna Pop Some Tags, Only Got Tariff Refunds in My Pocket!

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

28 July 2026

HG & HY Consumer Products

2Q26 Earnings Preview

I’m Gonna Pop Some Tags, Only Got Tariff Refunds in

My Pocket!

We go into 2Q26 earnings season for Consumer Products and Tobacco with North America Corporate Credit -

a cautious stance. The consumer remains healthy in aggregate – bank earnings and Consumer, Retailing, and Food &

Chase card data confirm spending growth and employment remains steady. Lower- Beverage

income cohorts face decelerating wage growth, sticky rates, and increasing energy- Yaakov Musheyev AC

cost driven inflation, while upper-income households experience equity gains and (1-212) 834 5865

large cash buffers. As it relates to our sectors, premium names (including yaakov.a.musheyev@jpmorgan.com

discretionary categories) retain pricing power while mass-market credits (and Carla Casella, CFA

daily use items) absorb the elasticity hit first. (1-212) 270-6798

carla.casella@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

HG Consumer estimates call for LSD sales growth and slight GPM expansion of

15bps, but EBITDA margin compression of 11bps, led by CLX (-718bps), MAT

(-681bps), and COTY (-264bps). HY Consumer estimates call for weaker Ratings

performance vs HG, with average revenue essentially flat and EBITDA margins HY Consumer Neutral

-88bps. HG Tobacco stands apart with revenue growth 6.0% and EBITDA margins CRI Neutral

+41bps on pricing power. EPC Neutral

ENR Neutral

LEVI Neutral

Underweight HG Consumer Products (64bps vs JULI 95bps) NWL Overweight (LR CDS)

PBH Neutral

SKX Neutral (OW TLB)

• UW CL – ‘33s +4bps, 15bps inside 7yr triple-As, on sluggish category growth SMG Neutral