Transportation & Logistics: Riding the Rails: June Intermodal Market Update

Research evidence excerpt

Transportation & Logistics: Riding the Rails: June Intermodal Market Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

28 July 2026

Transportation & Logistics

Riding the Rails: June Intermodal Market Update

The June volume data from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

shows Domestic activity continuing to set records with International returning to Shipping

YoY expansion after lapping tough comps from tariff implementation last year. Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

With their recent 2Q26 earnings report, JB Hunt noted truckload conversion (1-212) 622-1023

activity is at levels not seen in more than a decade and focused primarily in the East, brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

which benefits the most from rising truckload rates and higher fuel prices. JBI loads Grady Carr

also easily outperformed our estimates based on regression analyses with ~30 (1-212) 622-1251

quarters of historicals:+810bps vs IANA implied estimate and +580bps vs grady.carr@jpmchase.com

SONAR implied estimate, which implies market share gains from other IMCs and Brandon Wexler

(1-212) 622-1956

truckload conversion. As we have continued to note, the timing of the truckload brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

rate recovery did not meaningfully benefit IMC’s pricing power in 2026, but the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

2027 bid season represents the first full renewal cycle set against the current TL rate

environment, which should drive meaningful margin expansion and profit per load

improvement for JBHT that will carry into 2028.

• Domestic strength continues, International lapping easier

comps. Domestic intermodal extended its solid run in June, lifting total

volumes up +11.4% YoY, with Domestic Rail climbing +26.3% YoY

(+2,929bps vs.