JetBlue Airways Corp.: No surprises with 2H guide, though 2028 commentary was unexpected

Research evidence excerpt

JetBlue Airways Corp.: No surprises with 2H guide, though 2028 commentary was unexpected

J P M O R G A N North America Fundamental

Research

28 July 2026

JetBlue Airways Corp. Neutral

JBLU, JBLU US

No surprises with 2H guide, though 2028 commentary Price (28 Jul 26):$6.00

was unexpected Price Target (Dec-27):$6.00

JetBlue struck a comparatively bullish tone during its earnings call, guiding to 2H Airlines & Aircraft Leasing (Equity)

ACnon-fuel fundamentals broadly in line with our prevailing model, as well as Jamie Baker

addressing concerns ahead of next week’s planned event with creditors (keep (1-212) 622-6713

reading). While details on its now-branded First Class product were comparatively jamie.baker@jpmorgan.com

vague, the introduction of a 2028 earnings aspiration in excess of $1 is what caught James M Kirby

us by surprise. Can we get there in our model? Not comfortably, and we’re (1-212) 622-8297

embracing cheaper fuel than management. That said, the market seems more james.m.kirby@jpmchase.com

accepting than we are, as evidenced by Tuesday’s equity embrace, though we doubt Airlines & Aircraft Leasing (Credit)

we’ll see consensus snap to the level of management’s aspiration. Our 2H loss Mark Streeter, CFA AC

forecast is actually widened somewhat given our continued embrace of UAL-ish (1-212) 834-5086

fuel, with JetBlue’s $3.49/gallon full year estimate seemingly predicated on $3.20/ mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com

gallon in 4Q, which we doubt many will endorse (at least not yet). Turning to 2027, Benjamin Stueck

our earlier break-even estimate is reduced to a $0.30 loss, though that still assumes (1-212) 270-6757

benjamin.stueck@jpmorgan.com

a smallish operating profit (consistent with management commentary). Turning to J.P. Morgan Securities LLC