Rio Tinto Limited: 1H26 First Take: NPAT slight beat vs consensus, net debt better; no major project news

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto Limited: 1H26 First Take: NPAT slight beat vs consensus, net debt better; no major project news

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

29 July 2026

Rio Tinto Limited Overweight

RIO.AX, RIO AU

1H26 First Take: NPAT slight beat vs consensus, net Price (28 Jul 26):A$159.53

debt better; no major project news Price Target (Jun-27):A$207.00

Key takeaways: 1) Underlying EBITDA of US$14.8bn was 2% below both JPMe/

consensus, while NPAT of US$6.9bn was 4% below JPMe but 3% above

consensus. 2) The interim dividend of 211 USc/share (50% payout) was 3% above

consensus but 4% below JPMe (given our NPAT was higher), with net debt of US

$14.1bn better than both JPMe and consensus. 3) FY26 production and unit cost

guidance maintained across iron ore, copper and lithium, with copper C1 costs

guided down (as per the quarterly) to 30–50 USc/lb (from 65–75 USc/lb) and Australia

effective tax rate lowered to ~25% (from ~30%). On productivity savings, RIO

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

now expects $1.8bn run rate by year end, but we believe most of this is captured

within divisional results. RIO is Overweight rated. Lyndon Fagan AC

(61-2) 9003-8648

• Key positives. Still targeting $5-10bn asset sales. Upped productivity savings lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

target to $1.8bn by YE. Copper EBITDA of US$5.7bn was 4% above JPMe and

Jonathon Sharp

9% above consensus. Aluminium EBITDA of US$3.1bn was 7% above JPMe.

(61 2) 9003-8312

Net debt of US$14.1bn was 6% below JPMe and 8% below consensus. Copper jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

C1 unit cost guidance reduced to 30–50 USc/lb from 65–75 USc/lb (per the J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

quarterly). Effective tax rate lowered to ~25% for FY26 from prior ~30% Branko Skocic

guidance.