First Quantum Minerals Ltd: Q2‘26 First Take: EBITDA beat vs JPMe & Cons, 2026 guidance unchanged but cost upside risks again flagged; stay Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

First Quantum Minerals Ltd: Q2‘26 First Take: EBITDA beat vs JPMe & Cons, 2026 guidance unchanged but cost upside risks again flagged; stay Neutral

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

28 July 2026

First Quantum Minerals Ltd

Q2'26 First Take: EBITDA beat vs JPMe & Cons, 2026 Neutral

guidance unchanged but cost upside risks again FM.TO, FM CN

flagged; stay Neutral Price (28 Jul 26):C$37.39

Price Target (Dec-27):C$44.00

Our Take: Q2 earnings beat vs JPMe & BBG Consensus, 2026 guidance European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACunchanged but cost upside again flagged. Q2’26 EBITDA was +6% vs JPMe and Patrick Jones

+8% vs Bloomberg consensus (albeit BBG Q2’26 Con fell ~25% since 30 June). (44-20) 7742-5964

Net debt was -5% vs JPMe and in-line vs Cons. 2026 guidance: unchanged vs patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

Q1’26 based on unchanged energy & Kwacha assumptions, but Mgmt again J.P. Morgan Securities plc

flagged $0.25/lb upside to C1 based on current oil/energy cost levels. Cobre Dominic O'Kane

Panama: No incremental information regarding negotiations with the (44-20) 7742-6729

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

government. One of three circuits was restarted during the period with first J.P. Morgan Securities plc

concentrate from ore stockpiles ahead of schedule. We expect more detailed

Anna Antonova, CFA

discussion regarding the next steps at Cobre, the latest negotiations with the (971) 4428-1766

Panama government, any outstanding risks to guidance during the conference call. anna.antonova@jpmorgan.com

Given the Q2 earnings beat, no changes to guidance, and BBG Con already in-line J.P. Morgan Securities plc

with the potential increase to C1 cost guidance, we expect 2026 consensus Varun Bhattad

EBITDA could increase by low single digits. FQM trades on spot 2026/27E EV/ (91-22) 6157-5027