Saipem: Looking Through the Near-Term Noise

Research evidence excerpt

Saipem: Looking Through the Near-Term Noise

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

28 July 2026

Saipem Overweight

SPMI.MI, SPM IM

Looking Through the Near-Term Noise Price (28 Jul 26):€3.97

Price Target (Dec-27):€5.95

Saipem shares fell ~9% following a challenging 2Q26 result and a €150m European Oil & Gas

ACreduction to FY26 EBITDA guidance, with the quarter itself also containing Alejandra Magana

significant noise from weaker Offshore Drilling profitability, an elevated tax rate, (44-20) 3493-8031

and one-off redundancy charges. While the headline results disappointed and the alejandra.x.magana@jpmchase.com

guidance cut added to near-term caution, the call provided useful clarity on the J.P. Morgan Securities plc

largely transitory nature of these pressures and the remaining downside risk, which Specialist Sales contact details:

we believe leaves the shares at an attractive entry point. On Middle East risk,

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -management maintained FY26 revenue and cash flow guidance and clarified that European Energy

the revised EBITDA outlook does not depend on a near-term reopening of the Strait (44-20) 7134-1356

of Hormuz. Instead, the additional ~€70m assumed for 2H, in line with 1H ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

disruption costs, reflects a continuation of the same operating pattern: projects Style Exposure

continue to progress, but cargoes periodically await safe crossing windows,

sustaining higher vessel hire, tugboat and insurance costs. Importantly, ex-Middle

East conflict metrics continued to show earnings improvement, while management

expects a portion of the incremental costs to be recovered through customer

variation orders, albeit through a lengthy process and with any benefit more likely

to materialize in 2027.