Global Macro Strategy: Buy EURUSD

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Strategy: Buy EURUSD

Guiding beyond this would seem strange to us given two key catalysts emerging in

Q4. The first is the PCE methodology change across legal services, computer

software and accessories, and portfolio management services. Citi Economics

estimates it can reduce Q4/Q4 YoY PCE by 25bps and note that this change will

also revise data going back to 2021: “The computer software and accessories

component has been heavily impacted by rising memory costs that have been

pushed higher by AI-investment, while portfolio management services prices have

been rising with financial asset prices. Together, the three components have

accounted for close to a quarter of the cumulative increase in core PCE inflation

since November 2025.” The second is the Task Forces. WSJ reporting (27 July

2026) suggests that FOMC Waller believes the Task Force outcomes may be pre-

set: “Tell me who you're putting on these groups, he said, and I'll tell you what

they'll say.” Given the Productivity group is headed by AI supply side technologists,

this may add some dovish risk later in the year.

Peak oil boost for the USD? US-Iran negotiations appear to be improving, with an

Oman-based joint-control plan for Hormuz coming closer into view alongside a

“positive, productive” meeting (Aljazeera, 28 July 2026) between President Trump

and Netanyahu. The USD vs EUR terms of trade spread has tracked Brent tick-for-

tick since March and would fall further in favour of EUR if oil continues to fall

(Figure 2).

Tactical peak for AI enthusiasm? Our US equity strategists tactically downgraded

information technology from overweight to market weight on June 25, just 3 days

after the YTD peak in the SOX index, which at the time of writing is now in a bear