Daily Economic Briefing: Wednesday afternoon live

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Wednesday afternoon live

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

28 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

Wednesday afternoon live

• The July FOMC meeting starts today and market pricing reflects an unusually Economic and Policy Research

high degree of uncertainty around the meeting outcome. Our analysis of Alex Gallin

meetings since 2015 shows only four instances, including the current meeting, (1-212) 270-5492

in which markets priced in a significant probability of a surprise action on rates alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

(>25%) one day before the announcement. In one of these instances JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

(September 2024), the market was unsure whether the Fed would ease 25bp or Nora Szentivanyi

50bp. In the other two instances (December 2015 and 2018) the market (44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

confidence in an earlier expected hike was faltering on the eve of the meeting. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

In both of these cases, the Fed delivered a “surprise” 25bp hike.

Maia Crook

Market implied probability of surprise on day before FOMC decision (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

%, orange dots show mtgs over 25%

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

40 Dec. 2015

(outcome: +25bp) Sept. 2024 July 2026 Joseph Lupton

30 (outcome: -50bp) (1-212)joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com834-5735 Dec. 2018

(outcome: +25bp) JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: Bloomberg L.P., J.P. Morgan

• With the FOMC moving away from directional guidance, heightened

uncertainty around meeting outcomes is likely to become more common. We

believe the next move from the Fed is up but do not see a strong case for action

this week. The committee was divided in June but voted unanimously to remain

on hold with the hawkish wing of the committee concentrated in the reserve