INEOS Group Holdings SA (USD) 2Q26 Results and Notes from the Call

Research evidence excerpt

INEOS Group Holdings SA (USD) 2Q26 Results and Notes from the Call

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

28 July 2026

Underweight

INEOS Group Holdings SA (USD) INEGRP

2Q26 Results and Notes from the Call Moody's:S&P: B2B+ Outlook:Outlook: NEGNEG

The above agency ratings are at the corporate level

North America Corporate Credit -

Reality, however utopian, is something from which people feel the need of Chemicals and Energy (HY)

taking pretty frequent holidays. INEGRP’s 2Q26 adj. EBITDA result was ~10% AC Aaron Rosenthal, CFA

ahead of our modeling when adjusting for ~€80 million of inventory holding gains.

(1-212) 270-4584

The quarterly cash burn figure compares to our call for a modest cash inflow, with aaron.rosenthal@jpmorgan.com

the result negatively impacted by a larger than anticipated working capital Elle Boyd

headwind. Management on the call declined to provide an EBITDA figure for the (1-212) 270-7283

month of July, but guidance ranges across FY26 cash flow items were reaffirmed. elle.boyd@jpmchase.com

Project One is back on track and updates from the call and the associated quarterly J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

filing were mostly benign in our view. Q&A on the impact on trade flows into

Europe (US-EU FTA and ADDs) were topical. Cash outlays in 2027 and 2028 to

satisfy terms of the company’s exit from the Tianjin JV are incremental. It is fair

to debate whether the earnings associated with the announced Sinopec ethane

supply agreement are “incremental” as value attributable to excess VLEC capacity

was theoretically already contemplated (albeit on a spot basis). The recent rally in

spot prices on re-escalating Middle East tensions offers near-term price support,

but demand has not meaningfully responded (likely attributable to both seasonality