US Treasury Market Daily: August refunding preview

Research evidence excerpt

US Treasury Market Daily: August refunding preview

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

28 July 2026

US Treasury Market Daily

August refunding preview

• We expect the Fed to remain on hold tomorrow, but anticipate at least two Fixed Income Strategy

AC hawkish dissents. In the absence of definitive guidance from Chair Warsh, Jay Barry

market positioning has turned more bearish as rhetoric from other Fed officials (1-212) 834-4951

has become more hawkish... john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com

• ….We agree that the risks around tomorrow’s meeting skew hawkishly, but do Jason(1-212) 270-0034Hunter AC

not feel comfortable expressing this view through outright duration shorts at jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com

current levels, and continue to find value in 5s/30s flatteners, as a low-beta way

Harry Downie

to position for further hawkish repricing, as well as some relative value (1-212) 270-9500

• At next week’s refunding announcement, we expect nominal coupon auction harry.j.downie@jpmorgan.com

sizes to be left unchanged. The current auction schedule leaves Treasury well Amanda Berke

financed through FY26, though funding gaps emerge in FY27 and beyond… (1-212) 834-5739

amanda.berke@jpmorgan.com

• ...We think Treasury should remove “at least” from the long-standing forward J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

guidance next week. However, with political factors at play, Treasury may wish

to avoid clearly signaling that an expected increase in duration supply is

drawing nearer, which risks pushing the curve steeper...

• ...Thus, it is becoming increasingly likely that Treasury will leave its forward

guidance language unchanged next week. Given the November refunding’s

close proximity to the midterm elections, if the guidance remains unchanged