The Point for Australia/NZ

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Australia/NZ

Point |

Wednesday, 29 July 2026

Company | Global | Key Rating and Target Price Changes

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Company

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Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD.AX) - JunQ result: FY26 NPAT and FY27

guidance broadly in-line with VA Consensus

GMD has released its FY27 guidance for a "stand-alone" Genesis, given the

proposed merger is targeted for completion in Nov'26. Overall, production and

capex guidance are in-line with CitiE and VA consensus expectations; however,

AISC of A$2,750–3,050/oz was higher than expectations (+10% vs CitiE, +5% vs

VA consensus). The JunQ was mostly pre-released (see note), with AISC being the

relevant new data, landing 4% ahead of CitiE and 6% ahead of VA consensus.

Unaudited FY26 underlying NPAT stands at A$540–550m, in-line with CitiE and

VA consensus expectations. In FY26, GMD again delivered on its guidance, further

reinforcing its strong execution track record, having beaten production guidance

by an average of ~9% and AISC within 2% of the guidance midpoint over the past

three years. Following a busy period of M&A, we expect GMD to now benefit from a

de-risked capex profile and a shift from inorganic to organic...

Jack Whelan

Orora Limited (ORA.AX) - Earnings visibility challenged

Overall Orora’s RAK facility re-opening is contingent on 1.) A sustained re-opening

of the Strait of Hormuz; and 2.) Available and consistent economic shipping

capacity. As a result, we see no obvious timeline for ORA regaining ~15% of its

capacity, which we estimate to be some of its most cost-effective as well.

Combined with the ongoing reversal of premiumisation trends and a largely

inevitable impairment to Saverglass, we see a difficult risk/reward in the stock