United Parcel Service: Glide-Down Complete, But Headwinds Remain

Research evidence excerpt

United Parcel Service: Glide-Down Complete, But Headwinds Remain

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

28 July 2026

United Parcel Service Neutral

UPS, UPS US

Glide-Down Complete, But Headwinds Remain Price (27 Jul 26):$112.95

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$115.00

Prior (Dec-26):$118.00

UPS underperformed after a solid beat-and-raise failed to clear a bar that had risen

with the stock into the print (details here), as a weaker-than-expected 3Q Domestic Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingguide overshadowed the quarter and gave skeptics additional cause for concern on

the durability of the back-half ramp. Management executed the Amazon glide- Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

down and related network reconfiguration on schedule, which sets the foundation (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

for a leaner, more automated network with an improved mix, although we continue

to believe the multiple will remain under pressure from further Amazon in- Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

sourcing as it continues to evolve as a competitor. Similar to FedEx, management grady.carr@jpmchase.com

noted that fuel price changes had limited impact on U.S. profitability, with the

Brandon Wexler

benefit driven more by higher fuel surcharge tables, which should continue to (1-212) 622-1956

benefit Domestic margins in 3Q26 on a YoY basis. Overall, we remain constructive brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

on the structural changes at UPS, and while the steep 2H ramp is not out of reach, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

the company is off to a slower start in 3Q than previously expected. In addition to

the persistent Amazon overhang, we are increasingly focused on a number of

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)potential headwinds next year, which include accelerating wage inflation into